"Business Insider": Affecting 9 affairs providers of the US economy in 2024 FX168

 人参与 | 时间:2024-02-24 16:33:05

News Agency (North America) News In 2023,List of information websites many economists said that the United States will soon realize the long -awaited "soft landing".But before the presidential election in 2024, most of the United States was still pessimistic.

At the end of 2022, many economists and banks predicted that economic recession would occur at the end of 2023.However, in the case of stable employment growth and surge in manufacturing investment, inflation has decreased significantly.In addition, the gap between racial wages and net assets is narrowed, and consumer expenditures are still strong.

On the other hand, the interest rate of mortgage loans is still very high, and student loan payment has begun. Many daily expenses (such as "interesting" inflation rates such as "food, housing, and subscriptions and concerts) are still very high.

Shanon Sery Grein, Vice President and Economist of Wells Fargo, said the bank is expected to decline slightly in 2024, but it will not be too painful.

"We also expected that the slowdown in the labor market will continue in the near future and lead to a thorough layoffs that will be consistent with the economic recession in the middle of next year."In terms of standards, contraction will be mild, mainly due to the good financial situation of the family and some labor accumulation effects in the enterprise. "

Economists hope that 2024 will be relatively calm, or "boring".Morgan Asset Management Co., Ltd., Goldman Sachs and S & P Global companies all predict that as the economy enters the "final soft landing" stage, the GDP growth rate will be around 2% or slightly higher than 2%.Wells Fargo predicts that the average annual growth rate of the core personal consumption expenditure index of the core personal consumption expenditure in the fourth quarter of 2024 will be 2.2%.

"Business Insider" summarizes 9 factors affecting the development of US economic development in 2024.

Inflation speed slowly slows down

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The inflation measured by the overall consumer price index has slowed significantly this year, from 6.3%in January to 3.1%in November.This occurred after the inflation rate reached more than 8.9%in June 2022.

The slowdown in the rise in food, energy and commodity prices has reduced the inflation rate to the range of the Fed 2%.The White House said that the pressure of house prices may be alleviated next year.

Although the price of durable products in October decreased by 2.2%compared with the same period last year, many Americans still felt the impact of rising housing, clothing and grocery prices.In November, housing prices rose 5.5%year -on -year, while rents rose 6.5%.In November, groceries increased by 1.7%year -on -year, while restaurants and bar foods increased by 5.3%.The overall clothing increased by 1.1%year -on -year, of which men's clothing and boys' clothing increased by 2.8%.

High interest rates may bring relief, resulting in the surge in mortgage and credit card interest rates

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The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in 2023 and has remained stable since July. The benchmark borrowing interest rate is between the target interest rate of 5.25%-5.5%.It is said that three interest rates will be carried out in 2024, and it is hoped that by 2026, the federal fund interest rate will be reduced to 2%-2.25%.

Although the federal fund interest rate may be topped, it affects other interest rates such as credit card interest rates and mortgage interest rates.According to BankRate's data, credit card interest rates have reached 20.7% of the record.

At the same time, the 30 -year fixed mortgage rate interest rate is slightly lower than 7.5%, which makes it more difficult for new home buyers.It is estimated that buying a house has never been so expensive.

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Members of the Federal Public Marketing Committee have not reached an agreement on the number of interest rate cuts in 2024 -two of them are expected to cut interest rates, and the four are expected to cut interest rates four times.

"We believe that we have not seen that the comprehensive tightening policy has not yet transformed into economic conditions, and said that the Federal Reserve will not be transformed in the short term and mild inflation in the short term, it will cause a considerable degree of passive tightening to the economy."

The employment market may continue to slow, but the amplitude will not be too large

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Employment continued to grow in 2023, but the growth rate was lower than the past two years.This year, an average of 232,200 new jobs in the economy this year, an increase of about 55,000 over 2018 and 2019.These jobs are distributed in areas such as healthcare and social assistance, leisure and hotels and governments.

Since the beginning of 2022, even in the case of rising interest rates, it still maintains relatively stable between 3%and 4%.Last year, many economists predicting that raising interest rates in order to reduce inflation will lead to surge in unemployment.

The Budget Office of the Congress predicts that the unemployment rate will rise slightly to 4.4%in the fourth quarter of next year, and according to historical standards, it is still at a low level.

There is a proportion of work or finding a job in the elderly labor force of 83.3%, which is the highest percentage since 2002.Women's participation rate hit a record high, reaching 77.8%.

All this shows that with the continuous improvement of employment market inequality, people don't have to worry too much about maintaining their current employment.

Due to high consumption expenditure and strong manufacturing investment, economic growth may continue to exceed expectations

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At the end of 2022, many economists and predictions predict that the actual US economy in 2023 will have negative growth.On the contrary, according to the White House, the blue -chip economy forecast is expected to increase by 2.6%in 2023, partly due to the increase of 5.2%in the third quarter.

The growth of GDP in 2023 stems from strong consumer expenditures, although the inflation of retail products and services is still high.In November 2023, the price index of personal consumption expenditure (PCE) increased by 2.6%over the previous year, and in November, it fell from the previous month. This is the first time since April 2020.

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Economic growth is also promoted by increasing investment in manufacturing -in the third quarter, the private manufacturing construction investment hit a record high, the highest level since 1958.

However, US economic growth is expected to slow in 2024.Mainstream banks and economists are expected to grow up from 0.5%to 2%next year.Morgan Chase's conservative forecast expansion speed is 0.7%, while the World Federation of Large World Enterprises predicts 0.9%.The Congress Budget Office is expected to slow economic growth to 1.5%.Although the GDP is a highly concerned indicator of economic recession, the number of declines in the two consecutive quarters is not officially defined.

"Our confidence in economic recession is not as high as before, and we say that we can see most clearly that 2024 will be a year of economic growth."

People finally realized that despite inflation, the economy still performs well

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According to the consumer survey of the University of Michigan and the consumer confidence survey of the World Federation of Large Enterprises, the "vibration decline" may be gradually ending -consumer emotions are rebounding.

The University of Michigan increased by 13.7%in December, an increase of 16.6%over the past 12 months, and returned to the level in July.

The chief economist Dana Peterson said: "The rise in consumer confidence in December reflects more positive evaluations of the current business conditions and employment opportunities, and the less pessimistic views on the prospects of business, labor markets and personal income in the future","

Nevertheless, many Americans are still worried about the economy, especially considering the biggest things that affect them, such as grocery or rental costs are still high.According to CNN's public opinion survey of nearly 1,800 people in November, 84%said they were at least worried about the economy to a certain extent, and 43%said they were very worried.

The difference between the trend of "silent depression" reveals the difference between the views of the large economic variables and the Americans' views on its financial situation.

Given that most Americans are at least concerned about the economy, the economy may play an important role in affecting people's views before the Presidential election in 2024.

The extensive student debt reduction fails, loan payment is affecting the borrower's spending power

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Federal student loan interest recovered on September 1 after three years of suspension, and began payment in October.As of June 2023, federal student loan debt totaled 1.64 trillion US dollars, held by 43.6 million, with an average of about $ 38,000 per borrower.

According to data from Wells Fargo, as of the third quarter, only 7%of the borrower's student loan debt exceeded $ 100,000, and more than half of the borrowers needed to repay the student loan debt of less than $ 20,000.

Restore payment means that for many borrowers, additional repayment obligations are stripped from other expenditures or savings.The financial buffer of millions of people in emergencies has been reduced.

In October, nearly 9 million student loan borrowers failed to repay in time -about 40%of the borrowers who started to repay a few months ago.Although thousands of people have obtained debt cancellation through public service loans and revenue -driven repayment plans, millions of people are still difficult to maintain a balance of revenue and expenditure while repaying debts.

Although Biden tried to exempt students' debt in 2023 for the first time in 2023, his government was trying another way to provide loan deductions for smaller borrowers.Although the borrower may get the answer to the upcoming relief in 2024, it is likely that it will not be implemented until 2025.

It is better than most countries

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In terms of inflation and GDP, the growth rate of the United States exceeds most countries in the Seventh Kingdom Group (G7).The year -on -year inflation rate in the United States ranks third among the Seventh -Kingdoms Group, second only to Italy (from 5.3%in September to 1.7%in October) and 3.1%.In October, Japan, France, and Germany were less than 4%, while Britain was 4.7%.

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In the third quarter, it increased by 1.2%month -on -month, the biggest to date.The second is France, 0.1%, while the rest of the country has not increased or atrophied.Since the fourth quarter of 2019, the US GDP growth rate has also led the Seventh -Kingdoms Group, the United States has increased by 7.4%, the second -ranked Canada is 3.5%, and Italy is 3.3%.

Economic inequality has declined, but there are still a lot of work to do

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With the increase in actual wages, low -income Americans have begun to shrink the gap between high -income Americans.In November, the actual salary increased by 0.8%year -on -year, which was the most obvious among the lower income percentage. Some of the reasons were the growth of the labor union's efforts and the continuous labor shortage of low -income industries such as hotels.According to the White House data, 90%of the income people's wages have decreased by 6%year -on -year compared to 10 income.

According to data from the Economic Consultant Committee, compared with White American, the employment rate of blacks in the United States in 2023 is also a record of a record.To reduce the gap between racial wages, there are still a lot of work to do -the census data in 2022 shows that the median income of white American households is about 81,000 US dollars, and the median household income of black families is slightly lower than 53,000 US dollars.The median household income is $ 62,800.

Children's poverty rates are still worrying. According to the recent data of the Census Bureau, children's poverty rate increased from 5.2%in 2021 to 12.4%in 2022, more than doubled, that is, about 9 million children.This is equivalent to the overall poverty rate in the United States.Because the average child conservation cost of the United States is $ 10,000 per year, many women are forced to leave the workplace.

Taylor Swift and ChatGPT

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Taylor Swift started her Eras tour in March, while Beyoncé's Renaissance World Tour was conducted from May to October.Although their music attracted millions of fans, they also taught Americans to have one or two knowledge about the economy.

Many consumers spend thousands of dollars on concert tickets and travels of participating in the event, which has led to a certain extent that the ticket prices of movies, theaters and concerts have increased by 4.4%year -on -year.Many people are willing to fly over the country or around the world to see these artists. This trend is surprising that the inflation rate is rising.Similar phenomena have also appeared in movies such as "Barbie Doll" and "Obon Haimer", although not so extreme.

TIKTOK is the core of some economic trends, including "girl dinner", that is, the meals made of affordable or remaining ingredients, which may save hundreds of dollars of food costs for some people.The New York Times linked girls' dinner with a wider frugal economic trend, especially when the price continued to rise, surrounding the frugal trend of food.

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